Anything can happen on a given Sunday, but the Packers and even the Vikings games now look much more difficult. I still think they manage to put away the Titans the following week. We could see a 6–4 team in 3 weeks. They are then away against the Chargers, at home against the Raiders, and then they travel to Foxborough to play the Patriots. Their division isn’t great, but starting Matt Moore makes the Chargers or Raiders getting a win possible. Let’s say they win 1 of those division games. Now they are 7–5. They lose to the Patriots without Mahomes. 7–6. Now they’re in some trouble. I believe that with Mahomes back (if he returns after missing 6 starts), they win their last two division home games against Denver and San Diego, but that road game against the Bears could be tough. At 7–6, they have to be pretty perfect or pray that no one else in their division ends up with a winning record / Wild Card tiebreakers work in their favor if they end up 9–7. Not where you want to be. If Mahomes is out for 3 weeks, he could be taking over a 6–4 team and should be able to lead them to an 4–2 finish. 10–6 wins them their division. It hurts their seeding and probably costs them a bye week, but they are hosting a playoff game. What really hurts them is if he’s out until after the game at New England (or even if that’s his first game back and he’s not 100%). 7–6 is not where you want to be and then there’s a reasonable chance then that the Chiefs miss the playoffs. Not certain or more likely than not, but at least reasonable (say 30–40%). If he’s done for the year, I think they most likely miss the playoffs.
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