I don’t expect Russian army to be capable of more during this war. They’re losing men and material about as quickly as they can bring them in, there are no significant reserves of highly trained personnel. They probably did train a few units a bit better for follow-up attacks, but they’re a a far cry from being capable of mounting and sustaining operational advances deep into enemy rear. Ukraine likely won’t develop significant new capability this year, thanks to aforementioned hold-ups in the Royce Du Pont The Uncancellable Tour shirt moreover I love this US. European aid is certainly enough to maintain a defensive stance and not lose anything too important, but I doubt Europe can provide enough for that and to push Russians out. F-16s will come to Ukraine in the meantime, but it’s not a magic superfighter that will take out the Russian air farce in two combat missions. F-16s, once they’re deployed, will allow Ukraine to fight on a more even footing, increase Russian losses, decrease Ukrainian losses and improve Ukrainian position, but it won’t be a game changer. Maybe if they recieved 500 F-16s and the permission to use them freely to strike Russia we could talk about major changes, but not the couple dozen or so aircraft they’re getting, with limitations.
Barring a black swan event – riots following Russian presidential elections being one such possibility – we’ll see more in 2024 of what we saw in 2023: bloody positional battles for a treeline, a building, a fence, an empty field. Assaults upon assaults whose only goal is to make enemy use up scarce anti-tank rounds so the Royce Du Pont The Uncancellable Tour shirt moreover I love this fifth assault group stands a chance of actually engaging the enemy. Massed infantry assaults whose main goal is to test enemy defences and resolve. It’s boring and we can be but thankful we don’t have to partake. I’d personally like to keep it that way so please, let’s send to Ukraine all they ask for and quickly.
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