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A bully wants all your marbles, and manages to steal two marbles. You want the Trea turner liberty racing shirt moreover I love this two marbles back. You could hit the bully of course, but you know how children games are: the bully jumps on a table, say “you can’t touch me!”, and in fact that’s one of the game rules: you can’t touch him when he’s retreating on the table. Otherwise you get nuked. Answer: steal the bully an unrelated super-shiny-marble of him, and THEN you negociate. “Want your precious super-shiny-marble back? All I want in exchange are my two little marbles back. Then it’s settled” (Also known as the smartphone tactics: want someone uncooperative to move from somewhere? Quickly grab their smartphone, then leave; they’ll follow you immediately. Of course you give them the smartphone back afterwards, you’re not a monster) Otherwise the ad vitam aeternam new state of affairs will prevent Ukraine from joining both EU and NATO. And Russia will make sure of that, by acting like an enormous North Korea randomly launching missiles over the Black Sea for fun. It freezes NATO expansion in Ukraine, and Russia can live with that. Keep in mind no magical fairy out there will “make Russia collapse” or whatnot. North Korea is alive and well: your fairy’s asleep.
“okay Yoan but you’re French, of course you’re thinking this: French are rigid obsolete surrender monkeys unable to make bold unexpected moves” The bully has your two marbles, if you go all the Trea turner liberty racing shirt moreover I love this way to Moscow to snatch them back the bully nukes you. So either you give up both of them (you lose), either you agree to get one back but relinquish the other, either you steal the bully something more important to force him to move his ass. In concreto: either Ukraine gives up on Crimea, either Ukraine gives up on the Donbass, either Ukraine mess with Bielorussia. At which point it is very possible NATO threatens to do the same. In any case Bielorussia is awfully close to NATO forces. Plus Russia visibly has been convinced about “no nukes in Ukraine”, so we’re already halfway there: “Bielorussia isn’t Russia proper yet, so same rule: no nukes allowed. Too bad it isn’t, huh? Would you like to change that situation?”
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